The political confrontation between jailed Pakistan Tehreek- e- Insaf (PTI) founder and former prime minister Imran Khan and Pakistan’s powerful military establishment appears to have entered another critical phase, with both sides facing off over his possible release and medical treatment.
According to political experts, developments being discussed in Pakistan, Army Chief and Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir has made it clear that any arrangement concerning Imran Khan, whether related to his release from prison or his transfer to a private hospital, would have to be negotiated with the military establishment rather than secured solely through an order of the Supreme Court.
The issue has further widened the longstanding rift between Imran Khan and the Pakistani military. Since entering national politics, the former cricketer turned politician has repeatedly found himself at odds with successive army chiefs and senior military officers.
Imran Khan’s most complicated relationship with the military establishment has involved three generals: former Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, former ISI chief Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed and current Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir.
After becoming prime minister, Imran Khan appointed Faiz Hameed as Director General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Hameed subsequently became politically close to Khan. At the time, Hameed was relatively junior in the army hierarchy but was seen as having ambitions to become army chief after Bajwa’s retirement.
Bajwa was eventually given a three-year extension. Political observers at the time speculated that Hameed expected several senior officers to retire during the extension period, potentially improving his chances of becoming army chief.
Relations between Imran Khan, Bajwa and Hameed, however, deteriorated. Bajwa, despite his earlier association with Hameed, ultimately backed changes in the ISI leadership. Hameed was removed as ISI chief and transferred as Corps Commander to Peshawar, while Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed Anjum was appointed as the new ISI chief.
The relationship between Imran Khan and Asim Munir had already become strained. Munir had served as DG ISI under Bajwa in 2018 but was removed from the post after around eight months. Khan was reportedly suspicious of Munir over allegations concerning the leaking of private information relating to his wife, Bushra Bibi.
The political confrontation subsequently intensified and culminated in the removal of Imran Khan’s government in April 2022 through a vote of no confidence and Shehbaz Sharif subsequently became prime minister.
Munir was appointed army chief later in 2022. His rise to the top military position effectively ended Faiz Hameed’s prospects of becoming army chief. Hameed later resigned from the military and was eventually court-martialled and sentenced to 14 years in prison in a case involving allegations against him.
The current confrontation comes at a time when Pakistan is facing multiple political and institutional crises.
One major issue is a proposal to reorganise Pakistan’s existing four provinces into 33 administrative units. The proposal has been politically contentious, with opposition and reservations reportedly emerging within both the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).
Supporters of the proposal argue that creating smaller administrative units would improve governance and ensure that development funds allocated by Islamabad reach communities at the grassroots level.
However, the proposal would require broad parliamentary support and constitutional amendments. Without the backing of major political parties, including PML N, PPP and PTI, any such constitutional package would face serious difficulties in Parliament.
The disagreement has also exposed tensions between the military establishment and the country’s major political parties. The military leadership is believed to be seeking political space for a possible accommodation with PTI, while the party’s principal demand remains the release of Imran Khan.
This has brought the issue of Imran Khan’s imprisonment and medical treatment to the centre of the political negotiations.
Imran Khan’s camp has maintained that he should either be released through judicial proceedings or shifted to a private hospital on the basis of the Supreme Court’s directions, without any political deal with the military establishment.
The Supreme Court had issued directions concerning Khan’s medical treatment and access to his family. The subsequent decision to conduct his medical examination at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences in Islamabad, rather than shift him to a private facility, Shafa International Hospital has added another layer to the confrontation.
The political situation has meanwhile become more complicated following the announcement of a September 27 protest and proposed long march by the PTI-led government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
At the same time, opposition parties in the National Assembly are moving towards greater coordination over Imran Khan’s imprisonment, his medical treatment and what they describe as non-compliance with Supreme Court orders.
Jamiat Ulema e Islam chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman has also begun consultations with PTI and other opposition parties on the possibility of broader political coordination.
If the PPP were to join a broader opposition front, the political arithmetic in Islamabad could change dramatically. A united opposition could potentially seek a vote of no confidence against the Shehbaz Sharif government, creating a situation similar to the one that brought down Imran Khan’s government in 2022.
Pakistan therefore appears to be heading towards another period of intense political uncertainty, with the military establishment, the ruling coalition, PTI and other opposition parties increasingly locked in competing strategies.
The coming weeks could prove crucial for Imran Khan’s political future, the survival of the Shehbaz Sharif government and the balance of power between Pakistan’s elected institutions, the judiciary and the military establishment.
Any direct confrontation between the Supreme Court and the government over compliance with judicial orders could further deepen the constitutional crisis and potentially trigger demands for a change of government or fresh elections.
Pakistani political experts believe Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz are likely to remain aligned with Army Chief and Field Marshal General Syed Asim Munir, arguing that Pakistan’s political history has repeatedly demonstrated the decisive influence of the military establishment over the country’s political system.
According to political observers, Nawaz Sharif is aware of the consequences of confronting the military establishment. His political experience, particularly the events surrounding the Kargil conflict and the subsequent military takeover, remains a significant factor in determining his approach towards the army leadership.
Observers believe that if the current political confrontation escalates further, Pakistan could once again face a situation in which the military assumes a more direct role in governance, a possibility that remains a major concern for the political leadership as well as the public.
The stability of the Shehbaz Sharif government could also become increasingly vulnerable if the Pakistan Peoples Party withdraws its support from the ruling coalition.
If the PPP pulls out of the coalition, the PML N would lose its current majority position within the government alliance and would face serious difficulty in sustaining the government without support from other parties.
The National Assembly of Pakistan has 336 seats. The ruling coalition currently holds around 243 seats, while the opposition and aligned groups have 89 seats, with the remaining seats comprising independents and vacant positions.
The government side includes 132 seats held by the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz, 74 by the Pakistan Peoples Party, 22 by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan, four by the Pakistan Muslim League Q, four by the Istehkam e Pakistan Party, one by the Pakistan Muslim League Zia, one by the Balochistan Awami Party, one by the National Party and four government-aligned independents.
On the opposition side, 75 seats are held by independents and PTI-backed members. The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl has 10 seats, while the Sunni Ittehad Council, Majlis Wahdat e Muslimeen and Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party have one seat each.
Political analysts say the numbers underline the importance of the PPP’s support for the Shehbaz Sharif government. Any withdrawal by the PPP could dramatically alter the balance of power in the National Assembly and force the PML (N) to seek support from other political groups to remain in office.
The situation has become particularly sensitive amid growing tensions between the military establishment, the ruling coalition and the opposition led by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.
Political observers believe that the PML (N) is unlikely to risk a direct confrontation with the army leadership, given Nawaz Sharif’s previous experience of being removed from power and arrested following the military takeover under General Pervez Musharraf.
With political alliances under strain and the opposition preparing for further protests, the coming weeks could determine whether the Shehbaz Sharif government survives the growing pressure or Pakistan enters another period of political instability.
(The Author is a Former Bureau Chief Aaj Tak TV, Jammu)
