Ahmedabad: Gujarat’s families are getting smaller, and the change is happening faster than in most parts of the country. New central govt data shows fertility rates have fallen by 26.1% in a decade. The state’s total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years — has fallen from 2.3 in 2014 to 1.7 in 2024, revealed data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024.This marks one of the steepest declines nationally, second only to Delhi, and pushes Gujarat well below the replacement level of 2.1, the benchmark at which a population replaces itself across generations without migration.The shift is mirrored in birth statistics. Gujarat’s crude birth rate declined from 20.6 births per 1,000 population in 2014 to 16.8 in 2024, a fall of nearly 18.4% over the decade.Demographers, sociologists and public health experts attribute the trend to a combination of social and economic changes. Higher levels of female education, increasing participation of women in the workforce, delayed marriages, rapid urbanisation and the rising cost of raising children are all influencing family choices. Lower fertility rates are also linked to better maternal health outcomes, improved female literacy, wider access to contraception, and greater reproductive choice.Dr Dileep Mavalankar, a public health expert, said, “The decline is fundamentally linked to development. As women become more educated, begin working or aspire to work, family sizes naturally reduce. This is a demographic transition seen across the world for decades, particularly in developed regions such as Western Europe.”
Gujarat fertility rate
Economics and changing lifestyles heavily influence these choices. Rising housing EMIs, private schooling, healthcare, and the shift toward nuclear families make parenthood significantly more expensive. Raising children increasingly depends on paid support systems rather than traditional family networks.Kanika Lakhera, an IT professional from Ahmedabad, said, “My husband and I are ambitious and career-oriented. We did not want the restrictions or compromises that parenthood can bring. We value our independence and the flexibility to shape our lives on our own terms.”The shift is even sharper in urban Gujarat. The urban crude birth rate has fallen from 17.4 in 2014 to 14.7 in 2024, while urban fertility has declined from 1.8 to 1.5 — levels comparable to low-fertility urban societies globally.“Urbanisation is one of the biggest drivers behind Gujarat’s declining fertility,” said Dr Leela Visaria, social demography expert and honorary professor at Gujarat Institute of Development Research. “Providing quality education and a certain standard of living comes at a huge cost today. In an increasingly competitive world, many couples feel it is financially and emotionally more practical to have just one child.”She added that the shift towards nuclear families is also influencing reproductive choices. “Raising children increasingly depends on paid support systems rather than traditional family networks, which again limits choices.”Experts caution that the consequences of this decline extend beyond falling birth numbers. With a TFR of 1.7, Gujarat has entered the same demographic bracket as states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, which are already grappling with ageing populations and changing dependency ratios.
