Dubai’s real estate market recorded AED 225.7 billion in housing transactions in H1 2026, down 16.1% from AED 269.1 billion in H1 2025 amid the US-Iran war, according to a report by Anarock Middle East titled ‘Dubai Real Estate: Built on Vision. Proven by Numbers.’
Dubai’s residential real estate market recorded AED 225.7 billion worth of transactions in H1 2026, down 16.1% from AED 269.1 billion in H1 2025, but 14.7% higher than the AED 196.8 billion recorded in H1 2024, it noted.
The report distinguishes between armed conflicts and economic or financial shocks, noting that geopolitical events have historically had a more limited and shorter-lived impact on Dubai’s housing market than global economic downturns.
During the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2010), Dubai’s residential property prices fell by around 40% and took nearly 3.5 years to recover, the slowest rebound in the city’s history.
The 2015-16 oil price collapse resulted in only a 2% correction, reflecting Dubai’s limited dependence on oil, which accounts for less than 1% of its GDP. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, residential prices declined by about 6% but rebounded within 13 months, marking the fastest recovery cycle at the time, it noted.
Despite the geopolitical tensions, Dubai’s residential property prices fell by only 4-7%, marking the widest gap between negative market sentiment and the underlying performance of residential assets recorded during any major crisis in the emirate, according to the consultancy.
It noted that average residential prices in the first half of 2026 stood at around AED 1,900 (approximately ₹44,300) per sq ft, up 6% year-on-year from AED 1,800 (approximately ₹42,000) per sq ft in the corresponding period of 2025.
Indian buyers accounted for 22% of Dubai’s property market in 2025
The report highlighted the diversity of Dubai’s buyer base. Homebuyers from more than 150 countries purchased residential properties in 2025, with Indians accounting for the largest share (22%), followed by buyers from the UK (17%) and China (14%).
Investor participation strengthened, with over 129,600 new investors entering Dubai’s residential market in 2025, up 23% year-on-year. Around 80% of residential transactions were cash-funded, helping shield the market from interest rate volatility, the report showed
In terms of buyer motivations, 38% purchased homes for self-use, 28% for rental income, 21% to obtain Golden Visa residency, and 13% for capital preservation, the report noted.
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“The report highlights that while geopolitical tensions briefly affected buyer sentiment during March and April 2026, the correction was largely sentiment-driven – not structural. Residential prices softened by just 4-7% in the February to April period, significantly outperforming the DFM Real Estate stock index, which crashed 34% at its peak – the widest sentiment-to-asset gap of any Dubai crisis on record,” said Aayush Puri, CEO – Residential, Middle East & CEO – ANAROCK Channel Partners (India).
“Dubai recorded AED 225.7 billion worth of residential transactions in the first half of 2026, representing 15% growth against 2024 but dropping 16% against 2025. Moreover, off-plan transactions consistently accounted for nearly 70–77% of market activity throughout the period, highlighting sustained buyer confidence despite short-term uncertainty,” he added.
