Srinagar, Oct 10: Kashmir’s natural flood defences are steadily coming under pressure as concrete spreads across the Jhelum floodplain, wetlands lose ground and settlements expand into landscapes that once helped absorb excess water.
A scientific study of the Jhelum basin has quantified the scale of this transformation: built-up land within the river’s floodplain increased from 55.47 square kilometres in 1972 to 203.30 square kilometres in 2013 — nearly fourfold in 41 years.
“The population living within the floodplain also rose from 11.29 lakh in 1981 to 30.21 lakh in 2011, while the length of metalled roads increased from approximately 745.64 kilometres in 1962 to 1,698.23 kilometres in 2016,” the study notes.
The findings, published in a study examining the climatic, geomorphic and human-induced drivers of the devastating September 2014 floods, reveal how rapidly development has transformed the Valley’s flood-prone landscape.
The expansion matters because floodplains are not simply vacant stretches of land beside rivers. They form part of a natural system that accommodates excess water, while wetlands and drainage channels help regulate its movement. Construction, paved surfaces and obstructions can reduce water absorption, increase runoff and expose more people and infrastructure to inundation.
The study also found that the area of major wetlands larger than 25 hectares in the Jhelum basin declined from 288.96 square kilometres in 1972 to 266.45 square kilometres in 2013, a reduction of 22.51 square kilometres. Researchers reported that 20 wetlands in and around Srinagar had been converted into urban colonies over five decades.
Speaking to Rising Kashmir, senior environmentalist and researcher Dr Tanvir Ahmad Khan said: “Kashmir is committing an ecological blunder by allowing concrete to swallow its floodplains, wetlands and natural drainage systems. These are not wastelands available for urban expansion; they are nature’s own defence mechanisms against flooding. Every encroached floodplain and every reclaimed wetland weakens the Valley’s ability to absorb excess water and increases the vulnerability of people and property.”
He said that the devastating floods of 2014 should have served as a permanent warning. “Yet, unplanned construction, indiscriminate land-use changes and the shrinking of natural water-retention areas continue to undermine Kashmir’s ecological security. The most disturbing aspect is that development often proceeds at the cost of the very natural systems that protect human settlements,” Khan said. “The government cannot claim environmental responsibility while allowing ecological buffers to disappear. Flood management must begin with protecting floodplains, restoring wetlands, removing illegal encroachments through lawful processes, and enforcing scientifically informed land-use regulations.”
Khan said concrete may generate immediate economic gains, but when it replaces nature’s defences, society ultimately pays the price. “Kashmir cannot afford another warning written in floodwater,” he said. “The tragedy is that we are destroying nature’s protective infrastructure and expecting engineering and environmental mitigation measures and interventions to compensate for its loss. Embankments and drainage channels cannot fully replace functioning floodplains and wetlands.”
The environmentalist said that the most alarming concern is the lack of political will to protect Kashmir’s floodplains, with short-term development interests repeatedly taking precedence over long-term ecological security and public safety.
Dr Touseef Ahmad Bhat, a Kashmir-based environmentalist and socio-environmental activist, has repeatedly highlighted the interconnected nature of the Valley’s ecosystems.
“Entire Kashmir is a wetland,” Bhat said, stressing the ecological importance of the region’s natural water systems. He also identified urbanisation, pollution, encroachment, land-use change and climate change among the pressures affecting wetlands, warning of consequences for biodiversity, water quality and human health.
The concern is supported by research linking urban expansion and wetland loss with greater flood vulnerability. A 2023 study examining surface runoff in the Kashmir Valley found that rainfall exceeding 500 millimetres in the catchments played a key role in flooding, with northern catchments generating approximately 59.6 per cent of total runoff. It also identified built-up areas near rivers and below 1,560 metres as being at high risk of inundation.
The evidence underlines the need to examine climate and land-use changes together. Heavy rainfall can trigger flooding, but the condition of floodplains, river channels and drainage networks influences how water moves through settlements.
The Jhelum’s flood-management system also depends on the Flood Spill Channel, which diverts excess water from the main river. Designed to carry 8,000 cusecs, the channel requires adequate maintenance and protection against obstructions to preserve its intended function.
Satellite imagery of 63 sampled lakes showed that seven were no longer visible or had almost dried up. The audit also found that 2,528.10 kanals of Hokersar Lake had been encroached upon amid the absence of proper survey and demarcation.
