Amit Mohan PrasadWorld Population Day (11 July) this year focuses on empowering young people and enabling them to fulfil their aspirations. The theme is particularly relevant for India, which has a median age of 28.4 years and one of the world’s youngest populations. Yet the question is not whether India’s population is growing or whether its fertility has fallen below replacement level? It is whether the country is creating the economic and social conditions that allow its young people to build secure, productive and dignified lives.India has finally initiated the decadal Census after its postponement during the Covid-19 pandemic. The final enumeration is expected in early 2027, by which time the country’s population is likely to be close to 1.5 billion. India overtook China in April 2023 to become the world’s most populous nation, and its population will continue to grow for several decades.The demographic reversal between the two Asian giants is remarkable. In 1973, China’s population stood at around 880 million, compared with India’s 580 million—a difference of nearly 300 million. Today that gap has disappeared, and according to United Nations projections, by 2060 India could have nearly 1.6 billion people compared with China’s 1.13 billion, leaving India with almost half a billion more people despite occupying barely one-third of China’s land area.Recent demographic data present a mixed but encouraging picture. The latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-6) indicates continued improvements in maternal and child health, while the Sample Registration System (SRS) 2024 reports India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1. This is not an abrupt development. India first crossed below replacement fertility in 2020, when the TFR reached 2.0, and fertility has remained below replacement ever since.The decline in fertility attracted global attention after Elon Musk reposted a report on India’s falling birth rate, observing that fertility among the country’s educated population had fallen below replacement years earlier. More recently, The Economist devoted its cover to India’s “baby bust”. The attention to India’s demographic transition is welcome, but the framing deserves closer examination. India’s demographic reality differs fundamentally from that of countries already grappling with sustained population decline and rapid ageing. China’s fertility rate is estimated at around 1.03, Thailand’s 1.19, Italy’s 1.22, Japan’s 1.23, Germany’s 1.46 and the United States’ about 1.63. These countries are concerned about shrinking workforces and rising old-age dependency ratios. India’s challenge is different. Its population will continue to grow for decades because of population momentum and because some of its largest states continue to have fertility rates well above replacement. Interpreting India’s demographic transition through the same lens as ageing societies risks obscuring the country’s real policy priorities.The national average itself conceals striking regional differences. Bihar continues to record the country’s highest fertility rate at 2.9, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6, Madhya Pradesh at 2.4 and Rajasthan at 2.3. In contrast, Tamil Nadu at 1.3, Kerala at 1.3, Maharashtra at 1.4, Karnataka at 1.5 and Telangana at 1.5 have long been below replacement and present a different picture. These disparities mean that population growth will remain concentrated in some of India’s poorest states, where education, health outcomes, employment opportunities and per capita incomes continue to lag behind the national average. The per capita income of Telangana at Rs 4.27 Lakhs, TN at Rs 4.03 lakhs and Maharashtra at Rs 3.54 lakhs is much higher than MP at Rs 1.70 lakhs, UP at Rs 1.24 lakhs and Bihar at Rs 0.76 lakh.For decades, India has been too enamoured of the idea of demographic dividend. The demographic dividend narrative overlooks a fundamental reality. Every society has a carrying capacity determined by its natural resources, infrastructure, institutions and employment opportunities. Beyond a certain point, additional population ceases to be an economic advantage and instead places mounting pressure on land, water, housing, education, healthcare and public finances. Sustainability is therefore an integral part of any serious demographic discussion. To my mind, the incomplete narrative of demographic dividend has been promoted by the scholars of developed countries which welcome and throw out the migrants to suit their convenience!The challenge becomes even greater in the age of AI and robotics. Automation is steadily reducing labour demand across manufacturing as well as knowledge-intensive sectors. The assumption that every additional entrant into the labour force will find productive employment is becoming increasingly unrealistic. Countries can no longer rely solely on expanding labour supply to drive economic growth. Productivity, innovation and human capital will matter far more than sheer numbers.On this World Population Day, India would do well to move beyond the rhetoric of demographic dividend and make earnest efforts for population stabilisation. If we advance the date of peak by a decade or two by all-round efforts, we will have done a yeoman service to our motherland.(Writer is a retired IAS officer. Views expressed are personal)
