Pune: Maharashtra is likely to receive below-normal rainfall this monsoon, in line with the broader national outlook, India Meteorological Department’s latest long-range forecast issued on Monday stated.The forecast comes as weak La Niña-like conditions over the equatorial Pacific are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions, with climate models indicating the possible development of El Niño during the monsoon months. El Niño is typically associated with suppressed rainfall over large parts of India, including Maharashtra.The state-level probability map showed a clear dominance of “below-normal” signals across most parts of Maharashtra, with large stretches of central, western and Marathwada regions shaded in yellow tones, indicating 45-65% probability for below-normal rainfall. Some pockets, particularly in parts of Marathwada and adjoining interiors, showed slightly higher probabilities edging towards the 65% band, suggesting stronger confidence of deficient rainfall in these zones.While scattered green patches indicating “normal” rainfall probability were visible over parts of Vidarbha and isolated interior regions, these were small, fragmented and low-confidence signals. “These are just small spots and not large coherent zones. If we look at Maharashtra as a whole, the monsoon rainfall is likely to be below normal,” IMD scientist SD Sanap said.Sanap said historical patterns showed that central India and several other parts of the country tend to receive below-normal rainfall during El Niño years, while regions like northeast India and parts of Jammu and Kashmir experience enhanced monsoon.Another IMD official said slightly below-normal Eurasian snow cover, another factor known to influence monsoon circulation, might also be contributing to the weaker rainfall outlook.Officials cautioned that the long-range forecast operated at a broad spatial scale and probabilities remained moderate, mostly in the 30-50% range, indicating limited certainty at finer regional levels. The overall signal for Maharashtra, however, remained tilted towards a below-normal monsoon this year, they added.El Niño years and monsoon: What past data shows:El Niño years are typically linked to weaker monsoon rainfall over IndiaMajor deficit years during El Niño include: 1972 (77.7%), 2002 (79.1%), 2009 (81.7%)Other below normal years: 1987 (85.7%), 2015 (87.3%), 1982 (88.6%)Some El Niño years recorded near-normal rainfall: 1991 (98.6%), 1997 (100.2%), 2023 (95%)A few years even saw above normal rainfall despite El Niño: 1953 (110.7%), 1958 (114%), 1963 (104.4%)Indicates that while El Niño raises the risk of below normal rain, it does not guarantee a weak monsoon
