By the autumn party conference season of 2025, Burnham was openly on manoeuvres for the top job, as he refused to rule out a leadership bid.
His interventions appeared to backfire, after he provoked a backlash by suggesting the government was “in hock” to the bond markets – a reference to the government’s self-imposed rules limiting spending and borrowing.
In January a potential opportunity for a return to Westminster arose when Greater Manchester MP Andrew Gwynne announced he was standing down, triggering a by-election in his Gorton and Denton constituency.
However, Burnham was blocked from standing by Labour’s ruling body, with the approval of the prime minister.
By May, the situation had changed. Labour suffered a poor set of election results in England, Scotland and Wales, with Reform riding high in the polls and the party seeing success in Burnham’s backyard.
Sir Keir Starmer faced increased pressure over his future, with some MPs calling for change and ministerial resignations taking place.
Josh Simons announced he would step down as Labour MP for Makerfield to make way for Burnham to mount a bid to return to Parliament.
Burnham went on to be selected as the Labour candidate for the constituency and the following month he secured his return to Westminster.
He was then elected unopposed to be leader of the Labour Party and prime minister within weeks.
It might have felt like a seamless transition – but it was a huge political gamble that was not guaranteed to work.
If he had failed to win the Makerfield by-election his political career would have effectively been over – and if all of his potential challengers for the Labour crown had not melted away, he might have ended up as a backbench MP.
Burnham made a confident start as PM, with a blizzard of eyecatching policies aimed at easing cost of living pressures and shifting power out of Westminster.
One of his first acts was to set up No 10 North, in Manchester.
Labour had a modest bounce in the opinion polls, edging in front of Reform UK for the first time in months. This prompted speculation that he might call an early election, which were quicky squashed by the new PM.
But his hands remain tied by the manifesto Labour was elected on in 2024, with little room for manoeuvre on tax and spending.
And although he arrived for Labour’s conference in Liverpool in a commanding position in the party, most of the really tough decisions he must take as prime minister – from welfare reform to defence spending – lie ahead of him.
