Bengaluru: Congress‘ decision to strip two Muslim representatives of their posts for alleged anti-party activities, following disgruntlement over its choice not to field a Muslim candidate in the Davanagere South byelection, has stirred unease and reopened questions around minority representation. Observers suggest it offers a possible opening for smaller players such as Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI). The development comes amid a shifting political backdrop after the decline of the JD(S), once seen as an alternative for sections of minority voters before its alignment with BJP. Muslims account for around 11% of Karnataka’s population as per the 2011 Census, with some estimates placing the figure closer to 15%. The community is electorally significant in over 40 assembly constituencies, with its share exceeding 30% in nearly 19 seats across Kalaburagi, Bidar, Raichur, parts of coastal Karnataka and key urban centres. Political observers say even a marginal shift in these votes could influence tightly contested seats, especially in regions where SDPI has a limited but visible presence. Despite this weight, representation remains limited. In 2023, nine Muslims were elected to the 224-member legislative assembly. This is up from the seven in 2018. All are from Congress and account for about 4% of the House. Of the 32 ministers in the 34-member cabinet, only two are from the Muslim community — Zameer Ahmed Khan and Rahim Khan. The gap is sharper at the national level. Karnataka, which sends 28 MPs to the Lok Sabha, has not elected a Muslim representative since 2004. In recent elections, Muslim candidates formed a small share of those fielded by major parties. Among prominent contenders, Congress’s Mansoor Ali Khan lost from Bangalore Central, extending the two-decade absence. Congress’s strong performance in the 2023 assembly elections was widely attributed to consolidation of Muslim votes. But some observers say this may have reduced bargaining power within the party. “There is a growing perception that Muslims have no choice but to vote for Congress,” said Vishwas Shetty, political commentator. “Community representatives believed Davanagere South seat was ideal for a Muslim candidate, given that nearly 40% of the electorate belongs to the community and the Shamanur Shivashankarappa family already has two representations — one in the assembly and another in the Lok Sabha.” Party sources said the decision not to field a Muslim candidate was calculated, citing concerns over consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of BJP. The decision is also being viewed through a longer-term lens. With the 2028 assembly elections likely to see anti-incumbency against Congress, any shift of votes away from party could alter the political balance. While it remains unclear whether the current discontent will translate into a measurable shift, considering that SDPI is still a fringe party, the result on May 4 may offer clarity and possibly an early indicator.
