As the local elections results rolled in, a trickle of voices were calling for Keir Starmer to quit – a couple of MPs, a trade union leader, and a Labour peer.
The numbers are undoubtedly bad for Labour, with Reform making sweeping gains across pro-Brexit heartlands in the north and Midlands. These could even be the party’s worst losses for 50 years, with more than 1,000 councillors gone and the potential loss of control of the Welsh parliament.
However, the momentum for a decisive challenge to Starmer was not yet sweeping through the cabinet or rousing MPs on Friday morning – in the way that happens when a party leader finds their time is up.
Starmer has been preparing for this moment for months. He was out early for a visit where he made clear he was going nowhere and was not prepared to set out a timetable for his departure.
Special advisers have been called back to Downing Street to shore up his support, a move also intended to stop them plotting with cabinet ministers in favour of a replacement. The prime minister’s aides have briefed that he is planning a speech next week, which will inevitably be seen as another reset.
Starmer has also been fortunate that polling experts appear to have overestimated the losses he faced – with both John Curtice and Michael Thrasher revising their predictions to more like 1,200 defeats early on Friday; the benchmark for catastrophe for Labour had previously been set by experts at 1,800 to 2,000 defeats.
By midday, Labour had lost control of at least eight councils but also held on to a few – seeing off a Liberal Democrat challenge in the London borough of Merton, as well clinging on in Lincoln, Plymouth and Reading.
Halfway through the results, it did not seem like a Green wave was going to displace Labour across the capital as some MPs had feared – although Zack Polanski’s party won the Hackney mayoralty and had high hopes for Lewisham, Camden and other boroughs yet to declare.
The idea that Labour will lose the Welsh Senedd to Plaid Cymru, and even potentially come third behind the Scottish National party and Reform in Scotland, has already been priced in. Starmer will not be relaxing over the weekend, though, as MPs digest the results and assess what the losses will mean for their longer-term electoral chances.
A challenge could still emerge. This could happen intentionally or almost by accident if anger within the party bubbles over and a candidate with little intention of winning – known as a stalking horse – throws their hat into the ring just to trigger a contest, smoking out the real contenders.
The main potential leadership candidates were all silent on Friday, as they and their teams figure out their next moves, calculating whether there is a path to nudging Starmer out of the door or if he has bought himself some more time.
Andy Burnham, the popular mayor of Greater Manchester who was blocked by Starmer allies from returning to parliament, was keeping his counsel and is declining requests to appear on media. He also pulled out of giving remarks about a report on children on Friday morning so as not to derail the event with questions about his potential to challenge the prime minister and his views on the local election results.
Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner, who have significant support among MPs and would be likely to enter any leadership contest, are both reluctant to be the first mover against Starmer – in keeping with the old political adage that the person who wields the knife does not get to wear the crown.
Both will also be looking nervously at results in their own patches that show support draining away from Labour. In Rayner’s Greater Manchester seat, Labour was defending 17 seats and lost 16 of them to Reform, handing over control of Tameside council. Redbridge is yet to declare, but independent candidates are likely to make gains on Streeting’s home turf.
With Starmer down but not yet out, and his rivals wavering, it looks as though a continuing stalemate over his future is the most likely scenario. The prime minister answered an unconvincing “yes” when asked on Friday morning whether he would lead the party into the next election, saying he wanted to see out his term. Very few of his MPs agree that this will be allowed to happen but the route to his exit is not yet clear.
