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Apart from issues such as the politics of doles and freebies and the possibility of polarisation, the numbers emerging after SIR may play a crucial role in shaping Bengal’s polls
The battle over West Bengal’s voter rolls has quickly turned into a contest of perception.
The battle over West Bengal’s voter rolls has quickly turned into a contest of perception over the past month and the numbers explain why the stakes are unusually high.
The controversy over Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls gains significance because the numbers involved are comparable to recent electoral margins between the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2021 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election and the 2024 Indian general election.
The revision exercise has led to the deletion of nearly 63 lakh names from the voter list. Senior officers of the Election Commission, involved in supervising the roll revision process, told News18 that about 55 lakh of these fall under the categories of dead, absent, or shifted voters. Sources in the commission also said that around 23 lakh of the deleted voters are recorded as deceased, but at least 8 per cent of them appeared to have voted in past elections. The figures present a picture that could point towards possible irregularities, including the presence of fake or invalid voters, they say.
At the same time, around 60 lakh entries remain under adjudication, meaning their eligibility is still being verified and majority of them will unlikely be able to vote this election. Nearly 2,000 appeals have already been filed by individuals whose names were deleted, seeking reconsideration, sources added. On paper, the exercise looks administrative. In politics, however, the scale itself turns it into a potential electoral variable. Political analysts say the figures become more significant when viewed alongside recent election results in the state.
In the 2021 election, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress secured roughly 48 per cent vote share, while the BJP reached about 38 per cent. The difference in actual votes was roughly 59 lakh. Three years later, during the 2024 general election, the gap narrowed somewhat. The Trinamool Congress secured around 46 per cent vote share, while the BJP obtained about 39 per cent, translating into a margin of roughly 42 lakh votes. When placed alongside these margins, the scale of the current revision exercise naturally invites speculation and political interpretation.
Apart from issues such as the politics of doles and freebies, competing narratives, and the possibility of polarisation, the numbers emerging after the SIR are likely to play a crucial role in shaping West Bengal’s electoral contest this year.
Deletion, Dharna & The Battle Brewing
As of now, political analysts say the chief minister may have managed to seize the narrative advantage with an aggressive anti-SIR campaign. The BJP, meanwhile, is keeping its strategy under wraps and has spoken little about SIR, the deletions, or the apparent logical discrepancies. Instead, its focus has largely remained on the issue of infiltrators.
However, according to statistics available with the Election Commission and the parties’ ground data, a section of Hindus, including members of the Matua community, which is considered a strong support base for the BJP, has also lost voting rights.
After the Supreme Court ruling on the SIR of electoral rolls, Banerjee withdrew her dharna on Tuesday, but before that, she framed the moment as a political victory and thereby created a favourable public-perception. The protest ended dramatically, with the chief minister declaring that the issue had forced national attention on what she calls the risk of legitimate voters being deleted.
“Bengal’s electorate saw their chief minister fighting their case before the Supreme Court as commoner’s lawyer and on the street as well. The cases of logical discrepancies for mapped voters and the adjudication have made people believe that something was ‘not right’ with the procedure. While, the BJP, as of now, is still struggling to counter her allegation, and create a forceful narrative in their favour on ground,” Maidul Islam, political scientist and professor of Centre For Studies In Social Sciences (CSIS), told News 18.
For Banerjee, the calculation appears straightforward. Even if the legal process continues, the political messaging has already been delivered. “The dharna has served a clear political purpose. It brought the SIR process into public focus. By highlighting alleged discrepancies from the protest stage, Mamata Banerjee has shifted the debate from procedure to voter rights,” said professor Samir Das, a well-known Kolkata-based political analyst.
“That narrative can work in her favour because it puts the BJP on the defensive. If the perception grows that certain communities were affected, it could consolidate minority votes while drawing sections of the majority electorate toward her, allowing the political momentum to continue,” added Das, who is also a professor of political science in Calcutta University.
Electoral Arithmetic Behind The Narrative
If 63 lakh names have been deleted and 60 lakh remain under adjudication, political analysts suggest that even a partial overlap between these categories and past voting patterns could influence electoral calculations. However, the direction of that impact remains uncertain.
“If we are to assume or speculate something linking the numbers, we may say that the voters under adjudication could potentially affect both sides. Some may eventually be restored to the rolls, while others may remain excluded if they fail verification. The same happens in case of deleted voters as some of voters were declared dead on the rolls while they are alive, some mapped voters were dropped just because they were not present. This can cut both sides, and this also may fetch Mamata the very desirable equation—minority plus,” added Das.
A look at the district-wise break-up for the deleted voters reveals that the maximum number of deletions happened in North 24 Pargana district. Even though the district shares the border with Bangladesh, the Muslim population does not necessarily dominate the electorate here. Instead, the Matuas play the role of a deciding factor in multiple assembly constituencies.
The district saw around 1.41 lakh deletions. Nadia comes second with around 63,000 deletions and it has assembly seats dominated by Matuas, while some are influenced by Muslims. Nadia is also a border district. On the contrary, Muslim-dominated districts like Murshidabad or Malda saw a lower number of deletions.
“The perception battle at the moment favours Mamata Banerjee. There are reported cases where voters marked as dead are actually alive, and several genuine voters were deleted simply because they were recorded as absent,” said Islam.
“When such logical discrepancies appear in a Special Intensive Revision that is supposed to be flawless, it creates suspicion. Her aggressive campaign has amplified these issues, and that inevitably pushes minority voters, particularly Muslims, to consolidate further behind her,” he added.
Street Politics And Voter Psychology
For Banerjee, however, the political strategy is less about predicting the final numbers and more about shaping voter perception. Her dharna transformed a bureaucratic exercise conducted by the Election Commission of India into a public political issue.
The five-day protest in central Kolkata included ministers, MPs and MLAs. Leaders sang songs, and Banerjee painted on canvas during the demonstration. She repeatedly accused the Election Commission of deleting legitimate voters.
At the same time, she invoked her past movements, including the land agitations in Singur and Nandigram, and her visit to Lalgarh after the Netai massacre. Analysts say the combination of an aggressive campaign, allegations against the Election Commission, and a dramatic withdrawal of the dharna after the Supreme Court order helps Banerjee project the perception that she forced the issue into national focus.
Whether that perception translates into electoral advantage will depend on how the adjudication process unfolds. For now, though, the chief minister appears to have ensured that the voter-list revision is no longer just an administrative exercise. It is firmly embedded in Bengal’s political narrative.
March 12, 2026, 12:00 IST
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