For five years, M K Stalin has been walking down his father M Karunanidhi’s path. Now, the Tamil Nadu CM and DMK president is trying to achieve something his father couldn’t: a second consecutive term. He calls it the Dravidian Model 2.0.In the 234-member assembly, DMK heads a broad alliance that includes Congress, VCK, MDMK, MMK, and the Left. Stalin’s Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) now has 21 parties, including actor Vijayakantfounded DMDK, while reducing seat share for long-time partners. The AIADMK-led NDA includes PMK, AMMK and Tamil Maanila Congress. Actor C Joseph Vijay is making his poll debut with his TVK, widely seen as a disruptor, while Tamil nationalist Seeman’s NTK occupies the fourth corner.DMK seeks to make this a Centre vs state battle: projecting the Union govt as the villain, which tries to rob the state of its rights and language, and Stalin as the prime protector. “Our Dravidian Model, a superfast engine, will never bow its head before BJP’s dabba (rickety) engine (punning on BJP’s ‘double engine’ slogan). Which team will emerge victorious — Team Tamil Nadu or Team Delhi? Shall we settle this once and for all?” Stalin says.He also presents a bouquet of his govt’s welfare measures: free bus travel and monthly monetary assistance to 1.2 crore women, free breakfast for schoolkids, and development — double-digit growth — while promising to double down on both the fronts. Supporting Stalin with vigorous campaigns are his son and deputy CM Udhayanidhi, and sister and MP Kanimozhi Karunanidhi.DMK calls the opposition “BJP and its bonded allies”, who “wouldn’t hesitate to change the name of Tamil Nadu to Dakshin Pradesh”.The DMK offensive is also an attempt to nullify the antiincumbency sentiment, mostly driven by a perception of rising crime and narcotics. Several DMK leaders, including ministers, face corruption charges and are named by ED and other agencies. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) loses no opportunity to blame Stalin for the “deteriorating law and order” and the “ ?10-lakh-crore debt” his govt has got the state into.EPS has more at stake. He has had a string of defeats: the 2021 assembly elections and local body polls, and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Being out for another term would make it difficult for him to hold AIADMK together.Two years after the AIADMK-BJP alliance lost the 2021 assembly polls, they parted ways in Sept 2023, bitterly. Union home minister Amit Shah revived the alliance in April 2025, but the friction shows. While PM Narendra Modi refers to the next govt in TN as an “NDA govt”, EPS calls it an “ADMK govt”. On the DMK side, too, a section of Congress netas has been demanding a coalition govt, which TN has never had. Both the main fronts are working on caste equations. Broadly, Thevars dominate the southern region and Gounders the west, while Vanniyars and Dalits have a big say in the northerndistricts.WithTTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK back in the NDA fold, EPS is breathing a little easier on the Thevar front. The presence of Anbumani Ramadoss’s PMK ensures a chunk of the Vanniyar votes, too. Two expelled AIADMK leaders — former Jayalalithaa aide V K Sasikala, who has floated a party, and former CM O Panneerselvam, who has joined DMK — may play spoilsport for NDA in some Thevar pockets.With most Muslim groups by its side, DMK is sitting pretty on minorities, who constitute more than 10% of the voters. While Vijay threatens to eat into the Christian vote bank, Stalin has upped the ante against the FCRA (Amendment) bill.The state never had a disruptor like Vijay. The actor remains a big crowd-puller. Surveys show TVK may get 15%20% votes, but their conversion into seats may be minimal. Stalin has avoided naming Vijay, who has branded the contest as ‘DMK vs TVK’.
