The 2026 West Asia crisis exposed a fundamental truth: Supply-chain resilience is engineered, not reactive. When crude oil surged from $96 to $113 per barrel and fertiliser costs doubled, India’s response reflected strategic decisions taken over more than a decade. Yet it would be premature to celebrate, as more challenging times may still lie ahead if instability persists or expands.
For a nation importing nearly 90% of its crude oil requirements, with 40% originating in West Asia, even modest price spikes carry significant consequences. Petrol and diesel prices were stabilised through Oil Marketing Company absorption, calibrated taxation and prudent pricing. When fertiliser prices doubled globally, India floated global emergency tenders and absorbed cost differentials to ensure farmers received urea at affordable prices.
India’s energy architecture reflects deliberate diversification. The country expanded sourcing from 27 to 41 countries, adding suppliers across West Africa, the US, Norway and Algeria while deepening ties with Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
However, this wasn’t simply a commercial choice. US tariffs are now putting pressure on our Russian oil imports and now with similar pressure on our historically steady supplier, Iran, limiting its capacity as a supplier. Consequently, finding alternatives ultimately strengthens India’s ability to absorb disruptions from any single producer or region.
India’s energy transition bolstered resilience further. By achieving the 20% ethanol blending target five years ahead of the 2030 schedule, India substituted imported petroleum with domestic biofuels, conserving approximately ₹1.65 lakh crore in foreign exchange. Combined with strategic petroleum reserves and foreign exchange reserves approaching $690 billion, these investments have strengthened India’s capacity to withstand external shocks.
However, future risks transcend conflict zones. Renewed protectionism, tariff barriers and sanctions regimes could prove equally disruptive. Supply-chain resilience must now be viewed through the lens of geopolitical fragmentation. India’s response has depended on diplomacy alongside logistics and reserves — preserving access to Chabahar port while strengthening partnerships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Europe, the US and Russia reflects pragmatic multi-alignment rather than bloc politics.
Looking ahead, four priorities deserve attention.
- First, accelerate diversification of critical supply chains. A multi-aligned sourcing strategy creates new opportunities in energy, minerals and commodities. Critical minerals for lithium batteries, electric vehicles and machinery such as turbines require expanded sources beyond traditional suppliers.
The European Union and Canada are developing critical minerals production, while our eastern neighbour Myanmar, albeit small, holds significant critical minerals potential. India should simultaneously explore opportunities within BRICS economies, especially since intra-BRICS trade remains underdeveloped.
- Second, fertiliser security requires sustained focus. Significant dependencies persist in phosphates, potash and specialised nutrients. Greater supplier diversity, domestic capacity and local-currency settlement arrangements can reduce exposure to sanctions and currency volatility for imports from Russia and Iran. We must be equally hopeful that the US will provide a breather to Iran if latter comes to the table.
Meanwhile, our engagements with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and the broader African continent will strengthen long-term food security. Joint ventures with rich phosphate and gas reserves in countries like South Africa, Mozambique, Togo, among others, can ensure steady supply of fertilisers on a competitive basis.
- Third, logistics resilience must continue improving. Integrated ports, freight corridors, trade-finance support and war-risk insurance mechanisms have sustained economic activity through disruption. These capabilities should become permanent features. The government’s activation of the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) 5.0, with ₹2.55 lakh crore additional credit flow, provided critical financial buffers for MSMEs and airlines. Resilience requires not just securing supplies but ensuring businesses remain operational during uncertainty.
- Last, achieve supply-chain autonomy through patience and taking a long view. Short-term measures must yield to decade-long thinking on infrastructure, technology, energy security and industrial capability. As India hosts the BRICS summit in September, it must use the opportunity to emphasise collaboration that extend beyond energy. Russia offers opportunities in fertiliser security, critical minerals, nuclear energy and Arctic shipping. China remains crucial for manufacturing inputs, electronics and industrial machinery. Brazil can strengthen partnerships in food, edible oils, biofuels and agriculture. Such intra-BRICS cooperation holds considerable expansion potential.
The lesson from 2026 is not that India has become immune to global disruptions. Rather, long-term investments in diversification, reserves, logistics and diplomacy created buffers absorbing the first wave of shocks. The challenge now is sustaining that discipline. Ensuring resilience endures requires preparing not for the last crisis, but the next one.
(The views expressed are personal)
This article is authored by Vikramjit Singh Sahney, Member of Parliament, Rajya Sabha and chairman, Sun Foundation.
