Under the proposed exercise, Lok Sabha representation for three states and six UTs with a single seat each would remain unchanged, even though their assembly strength would expand. All these three states are in the Northeast-Sikkim, Nagaland and Mizoram.
In other states and UTs, the numbers will be increased by 50%.
A key institutional feature is the rotation of women’s reservation. In single-seat constituencies, the lone Lok Sabha seat is expected to be reserved for women after every three electoral cycles, ensuring inclusion while limiting continuity of representation-an issue likely to shape local political dynamics.
On social justice metrics, the exercise reflects calibrated expansion. SC representation in the Lok Sabha will rise from 84 seats (15.4%) to 136 seats (16.7%), with 46 seats reserved for women from SC communities. For Scheduled Tribes (STs), seats will increase from 47 to 70, with their share remaining broadly stable at around 8.6%. Of these, 21 seats will be reserved for women, in addition to three on a rotation basis from 8 states/UTs having single ST seats.
The data suggest a shift toward numerical expansion with modest proportional adjustments, particularly for SCs, based on the 2011 census.
At the state level, the scale of expansion is significant. The total number of assembly seats across 31 states and union territories will increase from 4,123 to 6,186, reflecting a uniform 50% rise. Within this, SC seats will grow from 614 (14.9%) to 954 (15.4%), with 318 seats reserved for women. ST seats in assemblies will also increase, consistent with overall expansion, while maintaining a broadly stable share.
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The exercise will rely on 2011 Census data, with the government citing delays in the ongoing census-initiated in 2025-and the unavailability of updated figures before late 2027. The choice reflects a policy trade-off between data currency and timely implementation, particularly of women’s reservation.
However, the legislative timeline remains uncertain. Parliament is likely to adjourn sine die on Friday without prorogation, and the House may not take up the legislation in the current session. Government sources said a special session could be convened later to consider the bill. The Union Cabinet is also unlikely to take up the proposal immediately, including at its next scheduled meeting.
The government is likely to bring three bills: the 131st Constitution Amendment to amend the women’s quota law, a Deregulation Commission Bill, and a Home Ministry bill to enable this in UTs.
