Bengaluru: Narratives of development and welfare ahead of the April 9 bypoll in Davanagere South are being overshadowed by a decisive undercurrent — the consolidation and possible shift of the Muslim vote, which forms a substantial share of the electorate. Based on estimates, Muslims number between 80,000 and 90,000 voters in an electorate of around 2.3 lakh, accounting for close to 40% of voters. The contest is a crowded one, with 25 candidates in the fray, including 14 from the Muslim community. Among them is Congress rebel Sadiq Pailwan, whose entry initially raised concerns for the party. While party brass managed to pacify him with assurances of a future position, the move has not fully eased tensions. Reports of clerics urging Muslim voters to back a community candidate have added to anxiety within the Congress camp, especially for its nominee Samarth Mallikarjun and his father SS Mallikarjun, minister in charge of the district. The absence of housing minister BZ Zameer Ahmed Khan, seen as a prominent Muslim face in the govt, has also drawn attention. Mallikarjun’s remark that the party would be better off without Khan’s campaign presence has triggered friction, with party brass now attempting to persuade him to rejoin the campaign. He has been contesting in Kerala. Former Union minister CM Ibrahim, once associated with Congress, is campaigning for independent candidate Khadar Adil Basha, adding another dimension to the contest. Discontent within sections of the Muslim community centres on Congress’ decision not to field a Muslim candidate despite their numerical strength, and instead backing a third member of the Shamanur family, a 27-year-old nominee. Some voters indicated they may back BJP as a mark of protest. A defeat, they believe, could push Congress brass to consider a minority candidate in the 2028 assembly polls and send a message against ignoring their concerns. KPCC working president Saleem Ahmed acknowledged the risk but was confident that not many Muslims would shift their allegiance to BJP. Political analyst MN Patil said even a limited shift in the Muslim vote could significantly impact the outcome, though ideological barriers may constrain such movement. Questions are also being raised about NDA’s strategy. The BJP-JD(S) alliance has not fielded a JD(S) candidate, which some believe could have enabled a Muslim face to consolidate protest votes. Analysts suggest this may have been a missed opportunity. The bypoll has thus opened up a key question — whether minority voters will cross over to the BJP, even tactically, to signal discontent and pressure Congress brass.
