Japanese voters could unleash political turmoil as they head to the polls on Sunday (July 20, 2025) in a tightly contested upper house election, with rising prices and immigration concerns threatening to weaken Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s grip on power.
Opinion polls suggest Mr. Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito may fall short of the 50 seats needed to retain control of the 248-seat upper house of parliament in an election where half the seats are up for grabs.
The polls show smaller opposition parties pushing for tax cuts and increased public spending are set to gain, among them the right-wing Sanseito, which vows to curb immigration, oppose foreign capital inflows and reverse gender equality moves.
A poor showing by the coalition could shake investor confidence in the world’s fourth-largest economy and disrupt critical trade talks with the United States, analysts said.
Mr. Ishiba may have to choose between making way for a new LDP leader or scrambling to secure the backing of some opposition parties with policy compromises, said Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at the Asia Group in Japan.
“Each scenario requires the LDP and Komeito to make certain concessions, and will be challenging, as any potential partner has leverage in the negotiations.”
After the election, Japan faces a deadline of August 1 to strike a trade deal with the United States or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market.
Such import levies could squeeze the economy and further pressure the government to give financial relief to households already reeling from inflation, such as a doubling of rice prices since last year.
With an eye on a jittery government bond market, the LDP has called for fiscal restraint, rejecting opposition calls for major tax cuts and welfare spending to soften the blow.
Ishiba’s administration lost its majority in the more powerful lower house in October.
That was the LDP’s worst showing in 15 years, roiling financial markets and leaving the prime minister vulnerable to no-confidence motions that could topple his administration and trigger a fresh general election.
Ruled by the LDP for most of the post-war period, Japan has so far largely avoided the social division and fracturing of politics seen in other industrialised democracies.
Voting ends at 8 p.m. (1100 GMT), when media are expected to project results based on exit polls.
Final nail for Ishiba
This could be the final nail for Mr. Ishiba, having already been humiliatingly forced into a minority government after lower house elections in October.
“Ishiba may need to step down,” Toru Yoshida, a politics professor at Doshisha University, told AFP.
Japan could “step into an unknown dimension of the ruling government being a minority in both the lower house and the upper house, which Japan has never experienced since World War II,” Yoshida said.
At one of Tokyo’s polling stations on Sunday (July 20, 2025), 54-year-old voter Atsushi Matsuura told AFP “Commodity prices are going up, but I am more worried that salaries aren’t increasing.”
Another voter Hisayo Kojima, 65, expressed frustration that the amount of her pension “is being cut shorter and shorter”.
“We have paid a lot to support the pension system. This is the most pressing issue for me,” she said.
Ishiba’s centre-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, albeit with frequent changes of leader.
Ishiba, 68, a self-avowed defence “geek” and train enthusiast, reached the top of the greasy pole last September on his fifth attempt and immediately called elections.
But this backfired and the vote left the LDP and its small coalition partner Komeito needing support from opposition parties, stymying its legislative agenda.
“Energy prices have swung sharply in recent months, as the government has flip-flopped between removing aid for household energy bills and adding new supports,” said Stefan Angrick at Moody’s Analytics.
Trumped
Out of 248 seats in the upper house, 125 are up for grabs on Sunday. The coalition needs 50 of these to keep a majority.
Not helping is lingering resentment about an LDP funding scandal, and US tariffs of 25 percent due to bite from August 1 if there is no trade deal with the United States.
Japan’s massive auto industry, which accounts for eight percent of the country’s jobs, is reeling from painful levies already in place.
Weak export data last week stoked fears that the world’s fourth-largest economy could tip into a technical recession.
Despite Ishiba securing an early meeting with US President Donald Trump in February, and sending his trade envoy to Washington seven times, there has been no accord.
Trump poured cold water on the prospects of an agreement last week, saying Japan won’t “open up their country”.
“We will not easily compromise,” Ishiba said this month.
Ishiba’s apparently maximalist strategy of insisting all tariffs are cut to zero — although this could change post-election — has also drawn criticism.
“How well his government is able to handle negotiations over US tariffs is extremely important, as it’s important for the LDP to increase trust among the public,” Masahisa Endo, politics professor at Waseda University, told AFP.
‘Japanese first’
The last time the LDP and Komeito failed to win a majority in the upper house was in 2010, having already fallen below the threshold in 2007.
That was followed by a rare change of government in 2009, when the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan governed for a rocky three years.
Today the opposition is fragmented, and chances are slim that the parties can form an alternative government.
One making inroads is the “Japanese-first” Sanseito, which opinion poll suggest could win more than 10 upper house seats, up from two now.
The party wants “stricter rules and limits” on immigration, opposes “globalism” and “radical” gender policies, and wants a re-think on decarbonisation and vaccines.
Last week it was forced to deny any links to Moscow — which has backed populist parties elsewhere — after a candidate was interviewed by Russian state media.
“They put into words what I had been thinking about but couldn’t put into words for many years,” one voter told AFP at a Sanseito rally.
