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Precious metal prices lost sheen in March on strengthening U.S. Dollar and concerns over a likely rise in interest rates. The rise in the prices of crude oil stoked inflation-related concerns that may warrant an increase in interest rates.
As a result, Comex gold closed well below the psychological $5,000-mark and settled at $4,678.6 by end March, representing a 10.85% fall last month.
The damage to Comex silver was even more pronounced closing 19.69% lower at $74.92 at the end of March. Mirroring the trend in global markets, the precious metals closed on a weak note in the local markets. However, the fall was cushioned to some extent by the weakening of the Rupee.
Stay range-bound
MCX gold closed at ₹1,50,761/10gm at the end of March, a 9% dip. MCX silver closed 14.77% lower to settle at ₹2,40,892/kg. As anticipated, precious metal prices stayed range-bound.
Comex gold was confined to $4,400-$5,650 zone mentioned last month. Though there was a brief excursion below the $4,400m mark, it recovered immediately and closed way above this level on March 23.
Though the long-term trend for Comex gold is positive, there are still no signs of the price getting out of the trading range of $4,400-$5,650. Unless the price moves above $5,260, there is no point in expecting any meaningful uptrend in gold. Expect Comex gold price to see volatile price action within the range until this breakout happens.
Comex silver price breached the lower end of the earlier range at $75-$110. This is a sign of weakness and could push the prices to lower levels of $60-$62 in the near term. While the long-term trend is positive, the price has to move above the resistance level of $83 before any meaningful uptrend can resume.
Swing price action
In the local market too, gold price was stuck in the ₹1,45,000-₹1,90,000 range mentioned last month. A breakout from the recent range of ₹1,30,000-₹1,75,000 would set the tone for the next big directional move in gold in the local market. Until then, expect back and forth price action within this range.
MCX silver breached lower end of prior range of ₹2,40,000-₹3,85,000, which is a sign of weakness. The short-term trend is weak and the price can slip lower to ₹1,90,000-₹1,95,000. Only a breakout above ₹3,10,000 would indicate the resumption of the long-term uptrend.
To summarise, gold is likely to remain range bound while silver could see some weakness in the near term. The long-term trend, however, remains strong for both the metals.
(The author is a Chennai based analyst / trader. The views and opinion featured in this column is based on the analysis of short-term price movement in gold and silver futures at COMEX & Multi Commodity Exchange of India. This is not meant to be a trading or investment advice.)
Published – April 06, 2026 06:52 am IST
