Ram SundaramChennai: Four constituencies in Tamil Nadu have always elected candidates from the alliance that goes on to form the govt. Vedasandur and Sriperumbudur have followed this trend since 1957, while Sholavandan and Ramanathapuram have mirrored it since 1977, making them key segments to watch in the 2026 Assembly election.What is happening in these four bellwether constituencies this year? Both DMK and AIADMK have fielded sitting MLAs or those who have won in these segments in the past.In Vedasandur and Sholavandan, DMK legislators S Gandhirajan and A Venkatesan are set to face AIADMK’s V P B Paramasivan and K Manickam, who were defeated by them in 2021, setting up direct rematches.Though BJP and Congress are yet to release their candidate lists, K Selvaperunthagai is expected to be fielded from Sriperumbudur against AIADMK’s K Palani, while in Ramanathapuram, DMK’s Katharbatcha Muthuramalingam is likely to face BJP’s D Kuppuramu in a recontest.The approach extends beyond these segments. In about 15 other constituencies that have backed the winning alliance in 10 of the last 11 elections, DMK has again relied on returning candidates.Political analysts say this trend can’t be dismissed as coincidence. “Take Valsad in Gujarat— it has backed the eventual winner in 14 of 15 Lok Sabha elections and is often cited as a bellwether. Such seats, along with broader data, help build models on how alliances convert votes into seats and guide campaign strategy. That said, it is an indicator, not a guarantee,” said psephologist R Chandrasekaran.
