Bengaluru: With the budget session of the legislature over, the three major political parties in the state will turn their focus on the byelections to Davanagere South and Bagalkot, with contests emerging as a key political test despite limited impact on the assembly’s numerical balance. Governing Congress, which holds a comfortable majority in the 224-member assembly, faces a credibility test as the results are expected to reflect leadership of chief minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy DK Shivakumar. For principal opposition BJP and its state president BY Vijayendra, it offers an opportunity to regain lost ground, while JD(S), led by HD Kumaraswamy, is looking to retain political relevance. Byelections traditionally favour governing parties and are often influenced by local factors, including cause of vacancy and candidate selection. In 2019, BJP won 12 of 15 assembly bypolls, helping BS Yediyurappa consolidate his hold as CM. Subsequent bypolls have seen the governing party retain seats, especially when leveraging sympathy votes. “Both bypolls were caused by the death of sitting MLAs. In the past, if the deceased MLA had a good track record, the sympathy factor could work in favour of a close relation of the deceased contesting the polls,” said Sandeep Shastri, a psephologist. “In both seats, Congress has nominated family members of the former MLA and thus begins with an advantage.” The Davanagere seat has been a Congress stronghold while Bagalkot has see-sawed between Congress and BJP. “The BJP candidate whom Meti defeated in 2023 is contesting again. He has potential since he won in the past,” said Shastri. “So, this seat is likely to see a tougher fight. The sympathy factor could work both ways: It could be sympathy for the candidate who lost the last time or sympathy for the former MLA whose son is in the race. JD(S) appears content to watch from the sidelines as neither seat is its stronghold.” For Congress, retaining both seats would reinforce its governance narrative and organisational strength ahead of the 2028 assembly elections. A loss, especially in a stronghold like Davanagere South, could raise questions about its grassroots connect. BJP, which lost the 2023 assembly elections but regained momentum in the Lok Sabha polls, sees the bypolls as a chance to demonstrate sustained voter support in north and central Karnataka. Even a victory in one seat would boost cadre morale and strengthen its claim of a revival. Prof Harish Ramaswamy, a political analyst, said: “Beyond all the rhetoric, these elections can offer insight into whether hereditary politics is relevant in politics. It’s important also to see if parties have an alternate perspective and policies for the people as our politics is still very short-sighted even after 79 years of independence.” Experts say the bypolls are expected to provide insights into voter sentiment, effectiveness of party machinery, and continuing influence of sympathy and dynastic politics.
