Mughal road may open in Feb for first time
In a Valley synonymous with frozen lakes and snow-laden rooftops, Kashmir this week witnessed a startling sight, a spring-like afternoon in the heart of winter. On February 19, Srinagar recorded an unusually warm 20°C, nearly 10°C above normal, raising concerns about the Valley’s water security, agriculture, and winter ecosystem.
Experts say weak Western Disturbances, vanishing snowfall, and early mountain thaws signal a broader warming trend in the western Himalayas, with February temperatures this high unprecedented in memory.
Meteorologists and environmental experts say the warmth is not a one-day anomaly but evidence of a steady climatic shift across the western Himalayas.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif said the most visible proof lies high in the Pir Panjal mountains. “For the first time, the Mughal Road is likely to remain open in February,” he said. The high-altitude route linking Shopian in south Kashmir with Rajouri traditionally remains buried under snow until March or even April.
Recent years show a clear pattern: 2023 and 2024 brought above-normal winter temperatures and low snowfall, while 2025 recorded precipitation deficits. January 2024 was among the driest and warmest in 43 years, with just 3 mm of rainfall in Srinagar and average daytime temperatures reaching 11.9°C, according to the Meteorological Department.
Director Meteorological Centre Srinagar Dr Mukhtar Ahmad confirmed the pattern. “We are witnessing deficient precipitation and consistently above-normal temperatures. Western Disturbances, the systems that bring snowfall to Kashmir, have been weak and infrequent this season,” he said.
Climate scientists attribute the change to accelerated warming across the Himalayan belt, where rising temperatures increasingly convert snowfall into rainfall and reduce snow retention on mountain slopes. Researchers describe the emerging phenomenon as a “snow drought”.
In Kashmir, winter snowfall is far more than seasonal beauty, it functions as the Valley’s natural water reservoir. Snow accumulated in the mountains melts gradually through spring and early summer, feeding the Jhelum River, irrigation canals, springs, wetlands and drinking-water sources.
This year, however, the deficit has been severe, with precipitation shortages estimated at around 80–85 per cent in parts of the Valley. Hydrologists warn that reduced snowpack could translate into lower river discharge during summer, affecting irrigation, drinking water supply and hydropower generation. In recent warm winters, several springs have already shown declining discharge.
The horticulture sector faces the most immediate risk. Kashmir produces roughly 2.5 million metric tonnes of fruit annually, dominated by apples that support lakhs of farming households and associated workers.
Apple trees depend on prolonged cold exposure, known as “chilling hours”, to flower properly. Warmer winters disrupt dormancy.
Chairman Kashmir Valley Fruit Dealers Association Bashir Ahmad Basheer explained the consequences. “Trees flower early, a late frost destroys blossoms, fruit size declines and pest attacks increase. A single frost event in March can wipe out an entire harvest.”
Agricultural scientists warn that erratic winters also increase disease prevalence and reduce fruit quality, threatening both production and farmer incomes.
The impact extends beyond agriculture. Glaciers feeding Kashmir’s rivers are sensitive to temperature shifts. Reduced snow cover combined with faster melting increases the risk of two extremes, summer droughts due to insufficient melt water and sudden floods due to intense rainfall events.
Dr Mukhtar Ahmad said the warming trend should be treated as a structural change rather than a seasonal fluctuation. “This is not a single-season anomaly. It reflects changing climatic behaviour in the region,” he said.
Residents are noticing the change: almond trees are blooming weeks early, Dal Lake freezes for shorter periods, and winter tourism in Gulmarg is increasingly unpredictable.
A February afternoon at 20°C may feel pleasant, but experts warn it signals a serious disruption of Kashmir’s winter rhythm. Shorter winters, water stress, and unstable agricultural production could become the new norm if the trend continues.
Changing weather patterns
Feb 19, 2026: 20°C recorded in Srinagar (10°C above normal)
Jan 2024: Driest & warmest in 43 years
Precipitation: Only 3 mm in Jan 2024
Rainfall deficit: Up to 80–85% in recent winters
Snowfall decline: Linked to weak Western Disturbances
Impact: Water shortage, apple crop risk, glacier stress
