Mumbai: Greater Mumbai’s luxury apartment segment is emerging as the primary driver of residential real estate activity in the city, with most high-value deals concentrated in the Rs 10 crore to Rs 20 crore range, even as overall home sales within the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) limits show signs of levelling off.Sales data compiled by real estate research firm Liases Foras indicates that Greater Mumbai’s housing market has shifted from a phase of rapid expansion to one approaching saturation in terms of transaction volumes. Annual residential sales within BMC limits climbed sharply from 16,371 units in 2016 to 48,772 units in 2024, nearly tripling over eight years. Momentum has weakened since then. In 2025, sales slipped about 3% year-on-year to 47,473 units.The cooling trend has carried into 2026. By the end of the Sept quarter, 32,437 units had been recorded for the year. While industry participants expect the final quarter to receive support from the festive season, the data suggests that the market is operating near its upper limit on volume, with limited headroom for further increases.Liases Foras said the slowdown is not evenly distributed across price bands. The pressure is most visible in the sub-Rs 2 crore category, which historically contributes a large share of Mumbai’s residential unit sales. At the 2024 peak, the below-Rs 2 crore segment accounted for roughly 30,000 units. In 2025, this segment contracted by around 8%, signalling that affordability constraints and buyer fatigue are most pronounced at the entry and mid-market levels.This softness has continued through 2026. The segment has recorded about 16,904 units so far this year, pointing to a materially weaker pace compared with the 2024 high. The reduced run rate underscores the extent to which demand is being tested in the mass-market portion of the city’s housing pipeline, particularly as prices remain elevated and households weigh purchasing decisions more cautiously.In contrast, higher-priced homes have continued to expand. Properties priced above Rs 2 crore have shown consistent growth and have continued to gain share even during periods when broader market volumes cooled. Liases Foras highlighted that the September quarter of 2026 stood out because the above-Rs 2 crore category did not show the same dip seen elsewhere. The divergence suggests that affluent end-users and investors remain active in the market, and that buyers in these segments are less sensitive to shifts in borrowing conditions or short-term macroeconomic volatility.Registration data supports the trend. Figures from the Inspector General of Registration (IGR) show that transactions above Rs 10 crore have risen steadily over the past three years, without any year recording a decline in this bracket. The distribution of these ultra-luxury deals also shows a clear pattern. The Rs 10 crore to Rs 20 crore band is the most active and represents close to 74% of all transactions above Rs 10 crore, indicating that the centre of gravity for ultra-luxury demand lies in the lower end of the very-high-value segment rather than in sporadic trophy purchases.Beyond this dominant band, about 15% of transactions are in the Rs 20 crore to Rs 30 crore range, around 9% fall between Rs 30 crore and Rs 50 crore, and about 2% are in the Rs 50 crore to Rs 100 crore bracket. Roughly 1% of transactions exceed Rs 100 crore, with 11 such deals recorded, according to the data cited. The breakdown suggests that while marquee purchases continue to take place, the ultra-luxury market’s strength is being sustained primarily by depth and repeat activity in the Rs 10 crore to Rs 20 crore segment.Pankaj Kapoor, managing director of Liases Foras, said the luxury market’s growth over the past several years has been particularly pronounced in the post-pandemic period, but he cautioned that the segment may now be nearing a plateau. “The luxury housing market has seen impressive growth over the past four to five years, particularly in the post-Covid period. However, it now appears to be approaching a plateau,” Kapoor said.Kapoor attributed a portion of recent demand to investor behaviour linked to gains in financial markets. He said some buyers monetised equity market gains and redeployed proceeds into real estate, in part to optimise capital gains tax outcomes. With the stock market correcting about 15% from its peak, Kapoor said the pool of investors with large realised gains—and the related incentive to reinvest in premium housing—could shrink.“We therefore expect luxury demand to moderate, both in Greater Mumbai and across other major Indian markets. The exceptional growth of the post-pandemic years may be difficult to sustain,” he said.The data points to a market increasingly shaped by two different trajectories: a volume-driven segment under pressure below Rs 2 crore, and a high-value segment that remains resilient and continues to attract capital. As overall sales stabilise, the composition of demand is shifting upward, with luxury and ultra-luxury purchases playing a larger role in sustaining activity within Mumbai’s residential real estate market.
