Chandigarh: Expect above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall in Chandigarh this October.According to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) seasonal outlook, rainfall averaged over the country as a whole during October 2026 is likely to be below normal. Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of northeast India and isolated pockets of central and northwest India, where normal maximum temperatures are expected.Above-normal minimum temperatures are also likely over most parts of the country, except across most parts of northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are expected, according to the probabilistic forecast for the month.According to the IMD, strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures well above average, particularly in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) and other major climate models indicate that El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year.Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecast indicates that neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue.Chandigarh’s rollercoaster monsoonThe 2026 southwest monsoon season in Chandigarh was marked by sharp monthly fluctuations, moving from a severely dry June to a wet July.According to data released by the Meteorological Centre Chandigarh, the city witnessed stark variations in rainfall distribution during the four-month season.The monsoon officially arrived in the Union Territory on July 1. June saw little rainfall activity ahead of its arrival, receiving just 39.3mm against the normal 155.5mm, a 75% deficit.IMD records show that July 1 is among the later monsoon onset dates for Chandigarh. The earliest recorded onset was on June 13, 2008, while the most delayed arrival was on July 27, 1987.The weather pattern changed dramatically in July as monsoon currents intensified across the region. After June’s dry spell, July brought 300.5mm of rain against the normal 273.2mm, an excess of 10%.Rainfall activity moderated in August, with Chandigarh recording 249.2mm against the normal 284.8mm, a 13% deficit.The season ended with near-normal rainfall in September, when the city received 132.2mm against the normal 131.4mm, an excess of 1%.
