Srinagar, Sept 11: Kashmir is witnessing a sharp weather swing, with the Valley ending August with a significant rainfall deficit even as September has brought unusually high daytime temperatures, leaving the region caught between prolonged dry spells and increasingly erratic weather.
Kashmir received 615.2 mm of rainfall in August against a normal of 815.5 mm, resulting in a 25 per cent deficit, according to India Meteorological Department data. The deficit comes after a contrasting July when Jammu and Kashmir received 259.7 mm of rainfall against a normal of 192.6 mm, recording a 35 per cent surplus and ending an eight-month spell of below-normal precipitation.
The July rainfall was particularly significant in Kashmir, with Baramulla recording a 165 per cent surplus, Ganderbal 110 per cent and Pulwama 108 per cent. Srinagar and Anantnag both recorded a 71 per cent surplus during the month.
The reversal in August has now been followed by an unusually warm September. Srinagar recorded a maximum of 32.5°C on September 3, around 5°C above normal, while the temperature touched 32.4°C on September 9. Weather data for the first nine days of September shows the city’s average temperature at 24.9°C against a normal of 20.2°C, a departure of 3.1°C.
Director Meteorological Centre J&K Dr Mukhtar Ahmad said mostly dry weather was likely to continue, although brief spells of rain or thundershowers could occur at isolated places. “The prevailing conditions did not indicate any prolonged wet spell at present, even as weather patterns could change during the coming days,” he said.
Independent weatherman Faizan Arif said the current heat would not continue at the same intensity. We can expect a drop in daytime temperatures from September 16 as weather conditions begin to change,’ he said.
The unusual warmth has come at a time when September normally marks the transition towards cooler autumn conditions. The first nine days of the month have instead seen Srinagar’s daytime temperatures repeatedly touch or cross 30°C, with the highest so far at 32.5°C.
The rainfall pattern is equally striking. After eight consecutive months of below-normal precipitation, July brought a substantial surplus before August slipped back into deficit. The sharp month-to-month variation suggests that the bigger concern is not simply whether Kashmir receives more or less rain, but when and how intensely the precipitation arrives.
The wider national outlook also offers little indication of an immediate return to a consistently wet pattern. The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall across India in September, with the country likely to receive less than 91 per cent of its long-period average rainfall for the month.
For Kashmir, the combination of deficient August rainfall and high September temperatures could have implications for water resources, agriculture and the seasonal transition, particularly if the dry spell persists.
At the same time, the region’s recent weather history shows that dry periods can be followed by short-duration intense rainfall, cloudbursts and localised extreme events. This year has already witnessed repeated episodes of intense weather, underlining the increasing variability in the Valley’s precipitation pattern.
The immediate relief, however, may come with a fall in daytime temperatures. Arif expects temperatures to start declining from September 16, potentially bringing the Valley closer to its normal autumn conditions. For now, Kashmir’s weather remains caught in an unusual transition — a rain-deficient August followed by a hot September, after a rain-surplus July — underscoring the increasingly unpredictable nature of the region’s weather.
