Kharif sowing has staged a sharp recovery after improved rainfall in July, but total acreage remains below last year’s level, with the shortfall concentrated in coarse cereals, rice and pulses even as weather experts and economists warn that crop yields, not acreage, will determine the eventual harvest amid strengthening El Nino conditions.
As of July 24, farmers had sown 82.62 million hectares under kharif crops, down 4.9% from the corresponding period last year, according to the agriculture ministry’s latest sowing data.
Rice, the country’s biggest monsoon crop, was sown over 23.44 million hectares, 2.6% lower than a year ago. Pulse acreage stood at 8.46 million hectares, down 7.6%, while coarse cereals recorded the sharpest decline, with sowing at 14.22 million hectares, down 11.9% from last year. Oilseed sowing reached 16.35 million hectares, 2.1% lower year-on-year, while cotton acreage was down 3.9% at 9.87 million hectares. Sugarcane and jute were the only major crops to record higher acreage than last year.
The latest figures indicate that kharif sowing has recovered significantly after lagging by about 23% at the beginning of the month, when an almost 40% rainfall deficit in June had delayed planting.
The delayed monsoon had slowed sowing of rice, pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals. But improved rainfall in July helped farmers catch up rapidly, with acreage recovering much faster than the rainfall deficit itself.
Barclays, in a report issued Friday has however cautioned that the key risk has now shifted from acreage to crop productivity.
“Late sowing increases vulnerability to subsequent dry spells and uneven soil moisture can affect crop productivity despite good acreage,” Barclays said, adding that the eventual kharif harvest—and even the following rabi season—will depend largely on rainfall during August and September and reservoir storage thereafter.
Rice production is expected to remain relatively insulated because of the recovery in acreage, lower dependence on monsoon rains in major producing states such as Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, and comfortable government grain stocks that can help contain prices, as per the report.
The report sees a less favourable outlook for pulses and oilseeds, which are more dependent on monsoon performance and enjoy far less policy protection. Barclays said weaker sowing seasons in these crops have historically increased dependence on imports and prolonged food inflation.
